A possible trade on the Australia dollar vs US dollar pair could set itself up next week. It would require the intraday momentum of Friday to SLOW in the downmove in the pair and a reversal to set itself in motion. This reversal would need to keep intact the channel in the image below.
The ideal scenario would be a spike down into the ‘bounce zone’ marked green, followed by a clear 1 bar reversal, or some other potential reversal pattern, including 2 bar reversal or an outside bar (these will be covered in later posts).
In terms of explanation, the spike off the topmost channel (zone 1) line set in place that channel line and the bottom channel line is drawn in from Bank Holiday Monday 2 January.
The first thing to note is that the pair on this chart (H4) is in a clear uptrend, therefore, using this channel methodology, I’m only looking for opportunities to buy.
I’ve marked the buy zone clearly, and we’re coming into the bounce zone now.
Note the price has bounced off the 20 simple moving average (dotted line), and this line is pointing nicely upwards still, although the 8 simple moving average, as I have mentioned, a crucial indicator of the current chart’s trend, is beginning to turn down.
A strong reversal back into the 3rd zone might indicate a buy. Better yet, a test and hold of the bottom zone (zone 4) and a reversal back into the 3rd zone would confirm the channel is still a good play.
At the moment there is a clear break of the strong uptrend in play, both the triple top and a trend line break (as such a sell), so it will be a case of patiently waiting to see whether the channel is able to contain the downmove, and looking for a strong sign that the uptrend will continue, or seek its previous highs.
Further opportunities to rejoin the uptrend, or enjoy a bounce exist lower down and are marked by the retracement % levels and the orange dot.
The 200 SMA (purple) is still pointing down but has lost some momentum, similarly, the 100 SMA is pretty much flat, so if we do get momentum upside, I don’t see a big problem with breaking the 100 SMA (pink) on the next attempt. The 50 SMA (turquoise) is pointing up, hence its being marked as support.
Buy. On the upside, looking either for a reversal back into the buyzone from here, or preferably the market dipping lower, then reversing back into the buyzone for a buy, stop will then go 10 pips below the bottom channel line (probably by this point, this will helpfully also take the stop below the 40% retracement area and aiming for 1:1, or the 100SMA, or beyond on the assumption of the trend continuing.
Sell. Having talked about the buy trade, the most obvious immediate trade is simply join the downmove for now (sell), with a short term stop above the high of the current candle, perhaps aiming for 100% of the length current candle, for a 1:2 risk reward, or just under that. This would mean the price going down to the low of the current candle, and extending a further 50% of the length of the current candle.
To contend with are: the 20SMA already mentioned, and the 40% retracement area marked. The price might struggle with the 20SMA as it already has acted as support. Possibly one to use half the normal number of lots, due to the trend being an upward one in terms of the most recent sustained strength.